A year ago, HR leaders braced for transformation, AI disruption and continued workforce challenges. Now, with 2025 nearly in the rearview mirror, it’s time to check the scoreboard: Which predictions came true, which missed the mark and which are still unfolding?
Predictions that came true
Financial wellness tech explosion
The prediction: Financial wellness technology would become “the hottest employee perk of 2025.”
Reality check: This one nailed it. At HR Tech 2025, Paychex’s launch of Paychex Flex Perks, offering voluntary benefits like earned wage access and financial wellness, ranked as one of the biggest announcements, according to conference chair Steve Boese.
The numbers back it up. More than 90% of college students and high school seniors surveyed said job perks would influence their decision to accept a job offer, with tuition reimbursement, student loan assistance and retirement savings benefits topping the list.
“We’re definitely seeing an increased interest in financial wellness technologies in 2025, as employers recognize that financial wellness is a key leading indicator of mental health, productivity and absenteeism,” Rebecca Wettemann, CEO of industry analyst firm Valoir, told HR Executive in January.
Verdict: Spot on. Financial wellness moved from a nice-to-have to an essential employee benefit.
The ‘golden age of payroll’
The prediction: Payroll would transform from a back-office function to a strategic force, with 2025 marking its “golden age.”
Reality check: Industry advisor Pete Tiliakos made this bold call in late 2024, and by May 2025, HR Executive reporting confirmed the transformation was real. Payroll professionals are now “leveraging their expertise alongside data insights” to deliver strategic value to their organizations, according to follow-up coverage.
The convergence of cloud technology, APIs and AI has collectively ushered in a new era for payroll, with professionals using data to guide business changes like mergers and acquisitions and global expansion.
“Paying your employees is a given, but payroll can be much more than that,” said Erin Lierheimer of Paychex. “Working with an HCM partner allows your business to look at payroll as a recruiting tool and differentiator to attract and retain top talent in ways that aren’t just competing on wages.”
Verdict: Happening as predicted. The elevation from transactional to strategic is underway.
AI moving beyond hype to specific applications
The prediction: AI would tackle “complex, strategic problems” rather than just automating repetitive tasks, with advancements at HR Tech proving the technology was “moving far beyond” simple automation, according to Boese.
Reality check: Agentic AI became the dominant HR tech theme of 2025, mentioned several-dozen times across Top HR Products submissions. Many domain-specific AI tools act autonomously to bridge the gap between business strategy and HR execution, marking the shift from AI as an assistant to AI as an actor and orchestrator.
The conversation has matured. Organizations are moving away from counting machine learning and predictive analytics as AI adoption, now requiring generative or agentic capabilities to meet their definition, according to Stacey Harris, chief research officer at Sapient Insights Group.
Verdict: True. AI continued to mature towards practical strategic applications.
AI ‘superworkers’ emerge
The prediction: AI superworkers would come “on like a freight train,” with industry analyst Josh Bersin identifying them as a top-five challenge for HR in 2025.
Reality check: Ninety percent of business leaders Bersin’s firm heard from in late 2024 reported some type of AI-based project happening in their workplace. The superworker concept, defined as employees empowered by AI to enhance their value and productivity, is “decompressing structural barriers” within organizations and giving employees access to enterprise-level AI tools, according to Bersin.
By early 2025, organizations like Rhode Island-based Citizens were openly discussing how HR “can’t hire for everything,” according to CHRO Susan LaMonica. “We must be intellectually curious.” This means getting more bandwidth from each employee.
Additionally, HR Executive reported on PwC’s superworker training program, which received more than 800 workshop requests in less than a year, with more than 500 completed, according to chief learning officer Leah Houde.
Verdict: Confirmed. The freight train arrived, though impacts are still in early stages at large employers.
Predictions that partially materialized
DEI polarization
The prediction: Companies would either double down on diversity, equity and inclusion efforts or retreat from them, creating a “polarized corporate community” in the United States.
Reality check: The split happened, but it’s messier than predicted. According to i4cp‘s survey of its Chief Diversity Officer Board, 57% of CDO budgets remained unchanged in 2025, and 29% increased. However, massive political pressure materialized as anticipated. Some companies stood firm while others retreated.
“We in the U.S. are taking a step back,” Angeles Martinez Valenciano, CEO of the Texas Diversity Council, told HR Executive in February. “But what we know is the globalization of DEI is going to be the continuation of diversity.”
The prediction about shifting roles also proved accurate. DEI leaders evolved from diversity advocates to DEI business strategists, connecting diversity, inclusion and equity efforts to data that impacts the business.
Verdict: Complicated but largely accurate. The polarization occurred, though some organizations held steady rather than picking sides.
Data literacy breakthrough
The prediction: 2025 would be the year HR makes breakthroughs in people analytics, with AI enabling HR teams to shift from analyzing past trends to predicting future outcomes.
Reality check: The technology exists, but cultural readiness still lags. We suggested that “the challenge for HR professionals will be less about accessing data and more about how to interpret and act on it effectively.”
Advanced tools are enabling more sophisticated analysis, but many organizations still struggle with the cultural readiness required to embrace these tools fully. “HR has to navigate the pressure to be business savvy, data-driven, inundated with new tech and still not forget that human side,” Don Robertson, who at the time was CHRO at Northwestern Mutual, said during a mega session at HR Tech. “The human side is critical.”
The ability to analyze data continues to differentiate HR teams that contribute strategically from those still operating in traditional, reactive ways, but the wholesale transformation hasn’t materialized.
Verdict: Tools improved dramatically, but the cultural transformation is incomplete.
